Although Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel have successively raised the prices of major steel products in February, the market has shown signs of recovery. However, for the trend of domestic steel prices after the Spring Festival, many traders and market players are cautious. Analysts believe that due to the fact that domestic steel consumers are affected by four major factors: the real estate industry is still unclear, the steel mills do not look good after the debut of the annual report, the resumption of production of small and medium-sized steel mills, and the severe export situation of steel products. "In the face of high pressure, "maintaining stability" is still an important task.
Only 50% of the previous year's construction steel inventors learned from the Lange Steel Information Center that at the beginning of 2009, Beijing had only 160,000 tons of steel stocks in construction, which was 300,000 tons in the usual years. Traders do not dare to “winter storage†normally, mainly due to concerns about the post-holiday steel market. As the largest end user of construction steel, the trend of the real estate industry next year is still unclear, which also affects traders' stocks for the Chinese New Year.
A business manager of a Beijing-based trader revealed to reporters that even if it is a very low inventory, the company still sells some steel products at a reduced price, fearing that the market will fluctuate after the holiday, and the general view is that the steel industry will only pick up in the second quarter.
However, unlike construction steel, domestic sheet stocks are similar to normal years. Analysts said that this is related to the replenishment of stocks by traders. Of course, there is an important factor related to the sales policy of steel mills. Traders can obtain more rebates from steel mills at current low prices.
Steel mill annual report data may burst "cold"
“Now everyone has a bad expectation on the performance of the steel mills in 2008, but if it exceeds expectations, it will also affect market confidence.†Lang Li, manager of Information Center at Lange Steel’s confidence center, told reporters: “In March of next year, domestic steel The annual report of the factory will be unveiled in a concentrated manner, and the extent to which the performance is bad is still unknown. It is not ruled out that the annual report of some steel mills will be a 'bomb', while the impairment loss of iron ore and other raw material stocks is not a decimal. These non-recurring factors Increase market uncertainty."
What the reporter learned shows that the losses of domestic steel mills are still expanding in the fourth quarter. Some steel mills lost a hundred million yuan in November, and some even reached double digits.
The production of small and medium-sized steel mills increased their supply pressures. “We are now keeping an eye on the post-holiday vacations of small and medium-sized steel mills in Hebei.†A trader in Hebei told reporters that the steel market has become warmer. Most small and medium-sized steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, but steel The supply has gone up and the price is under pressure.
A person in charge of the Longitudinal Iron and Steel Group was interviewed by the reporter and said that the company’s production has entered full capacity and began to make profits. He believes that post-holiday steel prices will further pick up, but if the steel mills are all resumed, there will be repeated steel prices. After all, the domestic steel market is in an overall oversupply situation.
Analysts believe that due to the appreciation of the renminbi, export prices of steel products, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, South Korea’s hot coils, and billets, have already been lower than domestic prices. This will put pressure on steel prices after the Spring Festival. A person in charge of the China Iron and Steel Association said that at present, the impact of the renminbi's value on China's steel imports and exports is not yet obvious, so we must wait until December 2008 when the customs data is released.
An analyst at Lange Steel stated that there are already some traders in the country that have signed supply contracts with the Commonwealth of Independent States. Therefore, after the holidays, as these contracts arrive one after another, the impact on the domestic steel market will emerge. At present, CIS countries offer about US$400/ton for HRC, while domestic prices are around US$500/ton.
Only 50% of the previous year's construction steel inventors learned from the Lange Steel Information Center that at the beginning of 2009, Beijing had only 160,000 tons of steel stocks in construction, which was 300,000 tons in the usual years. Traders do not dare to “winter storage†normally, mainly due to concerns about the post-holiday steel market. As the largest end user of construction steel, the trend of the real estate industry next year is still unclear, which also affects traders' stocks for the Chinese New Year.
A business manager of a Beijing-based trader revealed to reporters that even if it is a very low inventory, the company still sells some steel products at a reduced price, fearing that the market will fluctuate after the holiday, and the general view is that the steel industry will only pick up in the second quarter.
However, unlike construction steel, domestic sheet stocks are similar to normal years. Analysts said that this is related to the replenishment of stocks by traders. Of course, there is an important factor related to the sales policy of steel mills. Traders can obtain more rebates from steel mills at current low prices.
Steel mill annual report data may burst "cold"
“Now everyone has a bad expectation on the performance of the steel mills in 2008, but if it exceeds expectations, it will also affect market confidence.†Lang Li, manager of Information Center at Lange Steel’s confidence center, told reporters: “In March of next year, domestic steel The annual report of the factory will be unveiled in a concentrated manner, and the extent to which the performance is bad is still unknown. It is not ruled out that the annual report of some steel mills will be a 'bomb', while the impairment loss of iron ore and other raw material stocks is not a decimal. These non-recurring factors Increase market uncertainty."
What the reporter learned shows that the losses of domestic steel mills are still expanding in the fourth quarter. Some steel mills lost a hundred million yuan in November, and some even reached double digits.
The production of small and medium-sized steel mills increased their supply pressures. “We are now keeping an eye on the post-holiday vacations of small and medium-sized steel mills in Hebei.†A trader in Hebei told reporters that the steel market has become warmer. Most small and medium-sized steel mills in Hebei have resumed production, but steel The supply has gone up and the price is under pressure.
A person in charge of the Longitudinal Iron and Steel Group was interviewed by the reporter and said that the company’s production has entered full capacity and began to make profits. He believes that post-holiday steel prices will further pick up, but if the steel mills are all resumed, there will be repeated steel prices. After all, the domestic steel market is in an overall oversupply situation.
Analysts believe that due to the appreciation of the renminbi, export prices of steel products, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, South Korea’s hot coils, and billets, have already been lower than domestic prices. This will put pressure on steel prices after the Spring Festival. A person in charge of the China Iron and Steel Association said that at present, the impact of the renminbi's value on China's steel imports and exports is not yet obvious, so we must wait until December 2008 when the customs data is released.
An analyst at Lange Steel stated that there are already some traders in the country that have signed supply contracts with the Commonwealth of Independent States. Therefore, after the holidays, as these contracts arrive one after another, the impact on the domestic steel market will emerge. At present, CIS countries offer about US$400/ton for HRC, while domestic prices are around US$500/ton.
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